
Review for Test #1For the first test, you should be able to:1. Differentiate among the various statistical variables used: , including the formulas. For a given distribution, be able to predict how many histories would be needed for a given standard deviation of the mean (or the standard deviation from a given number of histories). 2. Find the estimate of the mean and the estimate of the standard deviation of the mean for a stream of estimates of a value, without using the statistical functions on your calculator. 3. Describe the meaning and importance of the Law of Large Numbers and the Central Limit Theorem. 4. Generate and find the period for a pseudorandom number stream from given values of a, b, m and . 5. Generate a few terms of a Halton sequence of any base. 6. Develop an algorithm for choosing x from a given pdf and domain using a technique I specify. You should be prepared to handle a discrete distribution, a continuous distribution using a direct method, a continuous distribution using a rejection method, or a Metropolis algorithm. 7. Recognize a situation that calls for a probability mixing method for choosing x from a given distribution and develop an algorithm that implements the choice. The above will prepare you for 90% of the test. Up to 10% of the test will involve ideas from the readings or creative application of the ideas we have discussed. NOTE: When I say "an algorithm," I mean a series of basic
steps that
could be implemented by someone not knowing Monte Carlo. It does
NOT mean that you tell me how you figured it out. Just figure it
out and then tell me the result in an algorithmic form. An algorithm usually
begins
with pulling one or more random numbers (which we can assume could be
done) and
ends
with "Your chosen value of x is ____". Example: Choose x from a flat distribution from 2 to 4. Answer: Example: Choose x using a Direct Method from p(x)=x between
2 and 6 To work this problem out, you would have to: All of this is your work. None of it is the
algorithm. The algorithm is: Answer: Do NOT have an "instruction" like "Choose x from an exponential distribution between 0 and 4." If you do, I will assume that YOU don't know how to do it and would only give minimal partial credit. 
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