To learn of various census, vital registration,
and survey materials employed by population statistics users in constructing rates,
ratios, and measures of demographic variables as well as developing population
indicators.
To become acquainted with various population
theories, life table (single decrement, multiple decrement) and multistage models,
model life table (empirical & relational), and stable population.
To become familiar with the logic of
spreadsheets.
Software packages are available to construct
indicators, rates, ratios, estimates, and projections. Surf the net to find them.
The Office of Disability Services requires that the following be added to the
course syllabus.
"If you need course adaptations or accomodations because of a documented disability
or if you have emergency information to share. Please contact the Office of
Disability Services at Hoskins Library at 9746087. This (action) sic will ensure
that you are properly registered for services."
Prerequisites: None. Be willing to learn the logic of a spread sheet (tell a computer how to add, subtract, multiply, and divide).
Coursework includes: Some lectures, some library work, and use of computer to complete exercises. If you have never read anything on population, see me. I will suggest an appropriate introductory text. For those who want more detail, audit Soc 462. See link at end of the syllabus for Population Problems.
Required texts:NOTE: Before purchasing these materials please see me to discuss your reasons and goals in taking this course. These materials are graded in sophistication. Which volumes you purchase will be determined by course goals.
(S) Collin Newell. Methods and models in demography. Guilford Press. New York: 1988. (S) A.H. Pollard, Farhat Yusuf, G.N. Pollard. Demographic Techniques. Pergamon Press. New York. 1990. (S) George W. Barclay. Techniques of population analysis. Wiley. N.Y.: 1958. (Out of print, but still worth trying to find a copy.) (R) Henry S. Shryock and Jacob S. Siegel, Associates (eds.). The methods and materials of demography. U.S. GPO, Washington, D.C., 1973. Skim (en toto). (S) Guillaume J. Wunsch and Marc G. Termote. Introduction to demographic analysis: Principles and methods. Plenum. New York: 1978. (Out of print, but still worth trying to find a copy.)
Reading Assignments: Your syllabus is divided into required (R) and suggested (S) readings. In some cases the materials are highly redundant, but graded by sophistication of coverage. You should read the materials which are appropriate to your interests in taking this course.
Lab assignments: A series of exercises has been constructed. Some are to be completed as spreadsheets. We used LOTUS, but any software program will do. To access the exercises find the links in the syllabus. Some exercises are suggested for those who have access to POPSYN.
The exercises will:
I. Review of assumptions underlying demographic analysis. Introduction to demographyAssumptions of the population model; its basic variables; theoretical versus applied demography. Distinguish between period and cohort approaches in the study of population. What are the advantages and disadvantages of each approach for data collection, measurement, and analysis? (R) N.B. Ryder. "Notes on the concept of population" American Journal of Sociology. Vol. 69 No. 5 (March, 1964): 447463. (S) N.B. Ryder. The cohort approach: Essays in the temporal variation of demographic phenomena. Princeton Ph.D. 1951. Microfilm. (S) N.B. Ryder. "The translation model of demographic change" in Emerging techniques of population research. Milbank Memorial Fund, 1963. Pp. 6581. (S) Donald W. Hastings and Linda G. Berry (eds.) Cohort analysis: A collection of interdisciplinary readings. Scripps Foundation. Miami, OH: 1979. pp. 115. (For Spanish speaking students, see. Donald W. Hastings, Linda G. Berry, Jose M. Rodriguez. "El analisis cohorte  su logica y utilidad." Revista Mexicana de Sociologia. Ano Xl, Numero extraordinario (E), 1978. pp. 299331.) (S) Guillaume J. Wunsch and Marc G. Termote. Introduction to demographic analysis: Principles and methods. Plenum. New York: 1978. pp. 5179 and pp. 749. (Out of print. If you want a copy, you may have to use web to find a copy.) II. Discussion of data sources: census; vital registration; survey and historical evidence. What kinds of data sources do demographers use? What sources can be used for the construction of elementary measures on primary demographic variables as well as other variables of interest to social demographers? What are advantages and disadvantages of each source? How can one use material in other sources? Is meaning as used by some sociologists, such as Cicourel, important when examining information contained in these sources? (S) Collin Newell. Methods and models in demography. Guilford Press. New York: 1988. pp. 321. (S) A.H. Pollard, Farhat Yusuf, G.N. Pollard. Demographic Techniques. Pergamon Press. New York. 1990. Chapter 1. (S) George W. Barclay. Techniques of population analysis. Wiley. N.Y.: 1958. Pp. 115, 5692, and 1555. (R) Henry S. Shryock and Jacob S. Siegel, Associates (eds.). The methods and materials of demography. U.S. GPO, Washington, D.C., 1973. or 1976. pp. 1104. (S) Ronald Pressat. Demographic analysis: Methods, results, applications. Translated by Judah Matras. AldineAtherton, Chicago: 1972. Chapter 1, pp. 112. (S) W. Parker Mauldin. "Applications of survey techniques to fertility studies" in Mindel C. Sheps and Jeanne Clare Ridley (eds.). Public health and population change: Current research issues. University of Pittsburgh Press, Pittsburgh: 1965. Pp. 93115. (S) T.H. Hollingsworth. Historical demography: The sources of historystudies in the uses of historical evidence. The Sources of History Ltd., Hodder and Stoughton, Ltd. Camelot Press, London, 1969. (S) Philip M. Hauser and Otis Dudley Duncan. "The data and methods" in Philip M. Hauser and Otis Dudley Duncan (eds.). The study of population: An inventory and appraisal. The University of Chicago Press, Chicago: 1959. Pp. 4575. (SP) (S) Mortimer Spiegelman. Introduction to demography. Society of Actuaries, Chicago, 1955. Chapters 2 and 3. Pp. 870. (S) Ian I. Mitroff, Richard O. Mason, Vincent P. Barabba. The 1980 census: Policymaking amid turbulence. Lexington, Mass.: Lexington Books. 1983. (S) U.S. Bureau of the Census. Census '80: Continuing the factfinder tradition by Charles P. Kaplan and Thomas L. Van Valey and Associates. Washington, D.C. GPO 1980. (S) Nathan Keyfitz. "Statistics, law and census reporting," 513; Norman B. Ryder. "Demographic uncertainty" 14; Dudley L. Poston, Jr. "Manipulating population counts," 1517; Donald J. Bogue. "Against adjustment," 18; Jay Weinstein. "Social goals and census protest," 1921; Dudley Kirk. "Politics of demography," 2225 in Society Vol. 18 No. 2 (Jan/Feb., 1981). NB. Pay attention to articles in the NY Times, Science and weekly news magazines that discuss adequacy of the coverage of homeless, possibility of court cases challenging accuracy of census, and reluctance of public to complete long form. THE LOGIC OF SPREAD SHEETS. NB The format for many of the exercises in this course was intially developed by Paul Wozniak and David Yaukey. ******* The links in this course are set up as follows: Assignment with table and key values to be used as a guide for identifying appropriate spreadsheet located in /~dhastings/ file.htm Lotus files with table and key values which may be worked to complete assignment. Locate in /~dhasting/download/file.wk1.
Read only files with answers located in /~dhasting/answers file.htm and accessible with password only.
At the end of the courses I will provide Lotus files with worksheets completed that have the calculations completed. These files will be downloaded from /exfiles file.wk1 with password only.
Assignment #1  Complete the data entry on Exercise 1 Tables 18.
Table 1EST. POP BY AGE AND SEX, US, 1980.
Table 2LIVE BIRTHS BY AGE OF MOTHER & BY SEX, US, 1980.
Table 3CEB AND MARST BY AGE, RACE, & RACE AND SPANISH ORIGIN, 1980.
Table 4MARST, PRESENCE OF SPOUSE, MAR HISTORY, 15+ BY SEX & AGE, 1980.
Table 5NO. OF MARRIAGES BY AGE & SEX, US, 1980.
Table 6DEATHS BY AGE & SEX, US, 1979,80,& 81.
Table 7NUPTIALITY MEASURES.
Table 8FETAL DEATHS BY AGE OF MOTHER, RACE, BY SEX, US, 1980.
********* TO DOWNLOAD ANSWERS SEE LINKS AFTER EXERCISE 10 TOWARD END OF SYLLABUS ********* OPTIONAL READ INTRODUCTORY MATERIALS ON POPSYN. Jean Bacon et al., GB Synthesisizer: A Software IntegratorUser's Manual. GarciaBogue Research & Development, Ltd.: Chicago, 1989. (Eventually you should become familiar with the Manual. Read Chapters 15. pp. 169.) III. Age and sex structure Discussion of various measures used to interpret the population pyramid or agesex structure of the population. Problems in coverage and accuracy. (S) Collin Newell. Methods and models in demography. Guilford Press. New York: 1988. pp. 2234. (R) Henry S. Shryock and Jacob S. Siegel, Associates (eds.). The methods and materials of demography. U.S. GPO., Washington, D.C., 1973. or 1976. Chapters 7 & 8. pp. 105144. Assignment # 2  In POPSYN run AGESX, PYRMD, and BEERS. Use the data from Exercise 1 Table 1. OPTIONAL  If you want to see what happens when you smooth an age distribution use these same data and run SMOTH. If you want to check for age heaping or digit preference run MWHM, use data on females from Table 41Single years of age by race, Spanish origin, sex: 1980. PC 801B1, p. 123. If you are familiar with matrix multiplication it is fairly eaily to develop a spread sheet in which you use multipliers to disaggregate age interval data into single ages.
Lotus File on Sprague Multiplers to disaggregate 5 year age groups.
III. Traditional measurements applied to primary variables of: (S) A.H. Pollard, Farhat Yusuf, G.N. Pollard. Demographic Techniques. Pergamon Press. New York. 1990. Chapter 2. A. Mortality (S) Collin Newell. Methods and models in demography. Guilford Press. New York: 1988. pp. 6381. (S) A.H. Pollard, Farhat Yusuf, G.N. Pollard. Demographic Techniques. Pergamon Press. New York. 1990. Chapter 5. (S) George W. Barclay. Techniques of population analysis. Wiley. N.Y.: 1958. pp. 123166. (R) Henry S. Shryock and Jacob S. Siegel, Associates (eds.). The methods and materials of demography. U.S. GPO, Washington, D.C., 1973. or 1976. Chapter 14. pp. 221248. (S) Guillaume J. Wunsch and Marc G. Termote. Introduction to demographic analysis:Principles and methods. Plenum. New York: 1978. pp. 79115. (S) James A. Palmore. Measuring mortality: A selfteaching guide to elementary measures. EastWest Population Institute Paper No. 15, revised June, 1973. Assignment # 3  Calculate the crude rates.
Assignment # 3B Recast the hypothetical agespecific fertility rates into a cohort grid. See the introduction Donald W. Hastings and Linda G. Berry (eds.) Cohort analysis: A collection of interdisciplinary readings. Scripps Foundation. Miami, OH: 1979. pp. 115. Donald R. Ploch and Donald W. Hastings. "Cohort surfaces: A graphic approach to teaching social stability and change." Teaching Sociology Vol. 20, No. 3 (July,1992):192200.
Logic of Cohort Grid & Steps involved in converting period
data to cohort data.
insert link to download exfilese3b1a.wk1
B. Fertility (S) A.H. Pollard, Farhat Yusuf, G.N. Pollard. Demographic Techniques. Pergamon Press. New York. 1990. Chapter 6. (R) Henry S. Shryock and Jacob S. Siegel, Associates (eds.). The methods and materials of demography. U.S. GPO, Washington, D.C., 1973. or 1976. Chapters 16,17 & 18. pp. 273332. (S) Guillaume J. Wunsch and Marc G. Termote. Introduction to demographic analysis:Principles and methods. Plenum. New York: 1978. pp. 143194. (S) Collin Newell. Methods and models in demography. Guilford Press. New York: 1988. pp. 3562. (S) George W. Barclay. Techniques of population analysis. Wiley. N.Y.: 1958. pp. 167202. (R) N.B. Ryder. "Fertility" in (SP). Pp. 400436. (R) N.B. Ryder. "Fertility measurement through crosssectional surveys" Social Forces Vol. 54, No. 1 (September, 1975): 735. (HS) James A. Palmore. Measuring fertility and natural increases: A selfteaching guide to elementary measures. EastWest Population Institution Paper No. 16, revised October, 1972. (S) Donald J. Bogue and James A. Palmore. "Some empirical and analytical relations among demographic fertility measures, with regression models for fertility estimation" Demography Vol 1, No. 1 (1964): 316338. (S) Barry S. Tuchfield, Leverett L. Guess, and Donald W. Hastings. "The BoguePalmore technique for estimating direct fertility measures from indicators as applied to Tennessee counties, 19601979" Demography Vol. 11, No. 2 (1974): 195205. (S) James A. Palmore. Regression estimates of changes in fertility, 195560 to 196575, for most major nations and territories. Papers of the EastWest Population Institute. No. 58. Honolulu, EastWest Center. OPTIONAL  For a discussion of this technique see POPSYN Manual pp. 622 625. PALMORE is available on EASWEPOP: Fertility Estimate Programs Version 1.1. EastWest Center, Honolulu, Hawaii, 1987. Assignment # 4  Calculate the fertility measures. In POPSYN run ASFRPATT, GFRTFR, and TFR using the appropriate data from Exercise 1 Tables 18.
C. Migration (R) Henry S. Shryock and Jacob S. Siegel, Associates (eds.). The methods and materials of demography. U.S. GPO, Washington, D.C., 1973. or 1976. Chapters 2021, pp. 349405. (S) P. Neal Ritchey, Donald W. Hastings, and Walter W. Robinson. "Confidence to be given findings from fixedperiod definitions of migration." Population and Environment, Vol. 9, No. 4 (Winter, 1987): 201224. (S) George W. Barclay. Techniques of population analysis. Wiley. N.Y.: 1958. pp. 241261. (S) Guillaume J. Wunsch and Marc G. Termote. Introduction to demographic analysis:Principles and methods. Plenum. New York: 1978. pp. 195266. (S) Collin Newell. Methods and models in demography. Guilford Press. New York: 1988. pp. 8489. Assignment # 5  Complete the worksheets on migration measures. In POPSYN run MIGFLOW.
Balancing Equation
LTSR Net Migration
Selected measures
Average of Forward and Reverse LTSR Methods for Net Migration
D. Standardization  Direct and Indirect (R) Henry S. Shryock and Jacob S. Siegel, Associates (eds.). The methods and materials of demography. U.S. GPO, Washington, D.C., 1973. or 1976. pp. 241244 & pp. 284288. (S) A.J. Jaffee. Handbook of statistical methods for demographers. U.S. GPO, 1960. Pp. 4352. (S) J. Matras. Population and societies. Prentice Hall. Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey. 1973. Pp. 178184. Assignment # 6  This exercise on direct and indirect standardization is useful for comparing population statistics from different geographic units. Note: The logic of indirect standardization is used in raking procedures and in FUNCPROJ.
Indirect Standardization
Direct Standardization
D. Nuptiality Assignment # 7  Calculate the standard measures on nuptiality crude marriage rate, general marriage rate, and singulate mean age at marriage using the appropriate data for Exercise 1 Table 7. In POPSYN run AGEMARRY using these data.
(S) Collin Newell. Methods and models in demography. Guilford Press. New York: 1988. pp. 167179. (R) John Hajnal. "Age at marriage and proportions marrying." Population Studies Vol. 7, No. 2 (November, 1953): 111136. Compare models of nuptiality CoaleMcNeil, CoaleTrussell, and Hernes. (S) Donald W. Hastings and J. Gregory Robinson. "A reexamination of Hernes model on the process of entry into first marriage for United States women, cohorts 18911945." American Sociological Review, Vol. 38 No. 1 (February, 1973): 138142. IV. Life table technique as applied to: (S) A.H. Pollard, Farhat Yusuf, G.N. Pollard. Demographic Techniques. Pergamon Press. New York. 1990. Chapter 3. A. Mortality Review the history of the life table. Present the assumptions of the single decrement life table for standard and stationary models. Note use of associated decrement life table. Note assumption of interaction in life table application. Present logic of multiple decrement life table and multistate life tables. (S) Barclay. Ibid. Pp. 93122 and 286297. (R) Henry S. Shryock, Jacob S. Siegel, and associates. The methods and materials of demography. Chapter 15, "Life Table." Pp. 429461. 1976. pp. 249276. Assignment # 8  With the use of the appropriate information from Tables in Exercise 1 complete the life table for US females 1980 with the Reed Merrell method. Compare the Reed Merrell results with results of POPSYN procedures. With the use of the ASDRs as input data in POPSYN run for ELT. Also run LTWST. Look up the appropriate lx values in CoaleDemeny "West" series then run LTSMTH.
Calculations for life table 1
Reed Merrell
(R) A.H. Pollard, Farhat Yusuf, G.N. Pollard. Demographic Techniques. Pergamon Press. New York. 1990. Chapter 4 & 10. (S) Samuel H. Preston, Nathan Keyfitz, and Robert Schoen (with the collaboration of Verne E. Nelson). Causes of death: life tables for national populations. Seminar Press, New York and London. 1972, Chapter 2. "Methods of Calculation." Pp. 924. (Read discussion of multipledecrement life tables). (S) Mark Dignan, Mary Hall, and Donald W. Hastings. "Effect of increased access to health care on mortality from cardiovascular disease in rural Tennessee." Public Health Reports. Vol 94, No. 2 (March/April, 1979): 186192. (S) Nathan Keyfitz. "Finding probabilities from observed rates, or how to make a life table." The American Statistician. 24(1970): 2833. (S) Nathan Keyfitz and Wilhelm Flieger. Population facts and methods of demography. San Francisco. W.H. Freeman. Chapter 6. Pp. 127143. Assignment # 9  Available in my office. (R) Etienne van der Walle and John Knodel. "Teaching population dynamics with a simulation exercise." Demography Vol. 7, No. 4 (November, 1970): 433448. Answer questions posed for each simulation. Be ready to discuss these questions in class. These answers eventually need to be written to turn in with your folder. B. Nuptiality (S) Guillaume J. Wunsch and Marc G. Termote. Introduction to demographic analysis: Principles and methods. Plenum. New York: 1978. pp. 117141. (S) Collin Newell. Methods and models in demography. Guilford Press. New York: 1988. pp. 89105. REVIEW IN CLASS  Example of multipledecrement life table. Source: Walt Saveland and Paul C. Glick. "Firstmarriage decrement tables by color & sex, U.S. 195860." Demography 6,3 (August, 1969): 243322, see esp. p. 245.
(R) Robert Schoen and Verne E. Nelson. "Marriage, divorce, and mortality: a life table analysis." Demography Vol 11, No. 2 (May, 1974): 267290. (S) Robert Schoen. "Constructing incrementdecrement life tables." Demography Vol. 12, No. 2 (May, 1975): 313324. (S) Scott M. Myers and Donald W. Hastings. "Convergence in ruralurban patterns of nuptiality and mortality: A life table update." Sociological Spectrum Vol. 15, No. 3 (JulySeptember, 1995): 227256. (HS) Andrei Rodgers and K.C. Land. Multidimensional mathematical demography. New York: Academic. 1982. C. Contraceptive Effectiveness and fecundability (S) Robert G. Potter, Jr. "Application of life table techniques to measurement of contraceptive effectiveness." Demography. Vol. 3, No.2 (1966): 297304. D. Anthropological Data (S) Kenneth M. Weiss. "The application of demographic models to anthropological data." Human Ecology. Vol. 3, No. 2 (1975): 87103. Assignment # 10  Calculate a life table under the assumption of a stationary population using the Ascadi and Nemeskeri (1970) technique. For a discussion of this technique see Douglas W. Owsley. A demographic analysis of skeletons from the Larson Site (39WW2) Walworth County, South Dakota. UTK. Anthropology. Dec. 1975.
V. Other life table models.
Sample of Survival Analysis using Life Table Method found in SPSS.
(S) A.H. Pollard, Farhat Yusuf, G.N. Pollard. Demographic Techniques. Pergamon Press. New York. 1990. Chapter 7. (R) Henry S. Shryock and Jacob S. Siegel, Associates (eds.). The methods and materials of demography. U.S. GPO, Washington, D.C., 1973. or 1976. Chapter 24. pp. 483507. VI. Special topics A. Models of age structure (S) Collin Newell. Methods and models in demography. Guilford Press. New York: 1988. pp. 120129. B. Empirical model life tables. (S) Collin Newell. Methods and models in demography. Guilford Press. New York: 1988. pp. 130141. C. Relational model life tables VII. Projections and Estimations. Assignment # 11  Examine interpolation formulas for TN county data.
Linear interpolation for 95 Counties of TN.Total Population. 19902010.
Loglinear interpolation for 95 Counties of TN.Total Population. 19902010.
(S) A.H. Pollard, Farhat Yusuf, G.N. Pollard. Demographic Techniques. Pergamon Press. New York. 1990. Chapter 8. (S) Barclay. Ibid. Pp. 203240. (S) Collin Newell. Methods and models in demography. Guilford Press. New York: 1988. pp. 180189. (R) Henry S. Shryock and Jacob S. Siegel, Associates (eds.). The methods and materials of demography. U.S. GPO, Washington, D.C., 1973. or 1976. Chapters 2223. pp. 407482. Assignment # 12  In POPSYN run SP. (Optional) (R) Richard Irwin. Guide for local area population projections. Technical Paper 39, U.S. Bureau of Census. July, 1977. (S) Collin Newell. Methods and models in demography. Guilford Press. New York: 1988. pp. 151166. Assignment # 13  In POPSYN run FUNCPROJ. Estimate the numbers of males and females by age in rural and urban Iowa who do not have indoor plumbing. (Optional)
The following links provide Lotus spreadsheet files with answers and calculation for Assignment #1.
ANSWERS TO Table 1 with calculations.
ANSWERS TO Table 2 with calculations.
ANSWERS TO Table 3 with calculations.
ANSWERS TO Table 4 with calculations.
ANSWERS TO Table 5 with calculations.
ANSWERS TO Table 6 with calculations.
ANSWERS TO Table 7 with calculations.
ANSWERS TO Table 8.
If you did not down the Sprague multiplier file for Assignment #2, please do so now.
Lotus File on Sprague Multiplers to disaggregate 5 year age groups.
The following links provide Lotus spreadsheet files with answers and calculation for Assignment #3.
ANSWERS to Crude Rates with calculations
The following link provides Lotus spreadsheet files with answers and calculation to Assignment #3B.
ANSWERS TO Conversion with calculation.
The following links provide Lotus spreadsheet files with answers and calculations for Assignment #4.
ANSWERS TO Fertility Measures with calculations.
ANSWERS TO GRR & NRR with calculations.
The following links provide Lotus spreadsheet files with answers and calculation for Assignment #5.
No link is necessary for ANSWERS TO Balancing Equation
ANSWERS TO LTSR Net Migration with calculation
ANSWERS TO Selected measures with calculation
ANSWERS TO Average of Forward and Reverse LTSR Methods for Net Migration with calculation
The following links provide Lotus spreadsheet files with answers and calculation for Assignment #6.
ANSWERS TO Indirect Standardization with calculations
ANSWERS TO Direct Standardization with calculations
The following links provide Lotus spreadsheet files with answers and calculation for Assignment #7.
ANSWERS TO Nuptiality Measures with calculations
The following links provide Lotus spreadsheet files with answers and calculation for Assignment #8.
ANSWERS to Calculations for life table 1 with calculations
ANSWERS to Reed Merrell with calculations
The following links provide Lotus spreadsheet files with answers and calculation for Ascadi & Nemeskeri (age and sex graded skeletal remains assuming stationary population model.
ANSWERS TO Ascadi & Nemeskeri with calculations
Federal Statistic
United Nations
Site prepared by U Michigan
Site prepared by MKEARL at Trinity College, TX
Population Reference Bureau
Links to population related websites
Data on population, health, & nutrition.PRB & USAID
Web site of Primary Source Media featuring Population Census Publications
Has files on CD ROM, microform, print and online.
Undergraduate Soc 311Sociology of the FamilyAvailable on request 
Graduate Soc 531Methods of Sociological Research Soc 563Demographic Techniques Soc 534Adv. Sociological Analysis (formerly taught with Suzanne Kurth)Available on request Seminar in Growth and Sustainability (with Sherry Cable) 
Courses Taught in Physical Education Advanced Competitive Swimming (Available on request  Snail mail)(Coaching resume available on EMail request)


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