Skeldon’s Modified Mobility Transition. From Ronald Skeldon. Population Mobility
in Developing Countries. London: Belhaven Press.1990
Phase I-Pretransitional Society
1. Fluctuating levels of circulation, both long-distance (pilgrimages, warfare) and short-distance (to incorporate different ecological niches).
2. More permanent movement associate with slavery or the opening of agricultural frontiers.
Phase II-Early Transitional Society
1. Growth of circulation as urban destinations, plantations or mines are incorporated as niches in rural-based circulation. Mobility is a support for rural communities.
2. Long-distance urban-to-urban movements up the hierarchy.
3. Stagnation of intermediate and smaller towns.
4. Increasing movement in frontier area.
5. Increasing complexity of mobility fields.
6. All movement dominated by males.
Phase III-Intermediate Transitional Society
1. Long term movement from areas close to the largest cities and the beginning of demographic stagnation in these areas.
2. Increasing lengths of stay at all urban destination resulting in the rapid growth of intermediate and smaller towns. Rural based mobility begins to undermine rural community economies and life.
3. Continued urban-to-urban movement mainly up the hierarchy.
4. Decreasing movement to rural destinations.
5. Great complexity in mobility fields.
6. Pronounced participation of women in #1 above.
Phase IV- Late Transitional Society
1. Massive rural to urban long-term movements with the largest cities the primary targets, the intermediate centers being short-circuited. The emergence of
megacities.
2. Increasing urban-to-urban movement.
3. Emigration if option is available.
4. Gradual simplification of mobility fields.
5. Movements #1 & 2 are female dominated, #3 is male dominated.
Phase 5-Early Advanced Society
1. Slackening rural to urban movement as urbanization levels exceed 50%.
2. Suburbanization and the beginnings of deconcentration of population.
3. Increasing commuting.
4. Movements #1 and 2 are sex balanced, #3 is male dominated.
Phase 6-Late Advanced Society
1. Continued deconcentration of urbanization.
2. Immigrant flows from countries in Phase IV if option is available.
3. Massive commuting.
4. Most flows are sex balanced.